When RIM reported its first quarter earnings on June 16, its shares plummeted. Since then, its shares have been trading in a range between C$24.31-$29.67. Today, it closed at C$25.19, after providing details about its previously-announced plan to reduce headcount.
Commentary about the company has been very negative, particularly in the U.S. This is partly why the shares are trading at an incredibly discounted level of 4.22 trailing P/E. Despite the negative sentiment, the shares are going to receive a big boost, as early as possibly tomorrow.
official twitter account has hinted that an announcement may occur tomorrow.
RIM shares in the past have received a significant boost in the run-up to the announcement of new devices. For example, last year, before the Torch was announced on August 3, RIM shares rose from C$50.06 on July 6 to $60.00 on August 3, a gain of 19.86% in less than 1 month. Thus, investors should expect a similar boost in the coming days.
In fact, one could argue that the boost RIM shares will receive this time will be stronger than the one from the Torch last year. This is because RIM is launching 7 new devices (versus just 1 last time) and sentiment is extremely bearish (thus the 4.22 trailing P/E). In addition, RIM is launching its new devices simultaneously at more carriers this time. For example, at the AGM on July 12, Mike Lazaridis stated that RIM was currently in 491 certification programs with 191 carriers around the world, in what he said will be the "largest global launch of BlackBerry smartphones".
The first bit of good news from RIM should be a release date for the Bold 9900/9930, which leaks from Bell and Sprint have shown to be August 21. The second bit of news from RIM should be an announcement of the Torch 9850/9860, which leaks have shown has a release date of August 27. Thus, I expect RIM to rally at least 20% in the next 2-3 months on the new devices. In fact, as RIM's twitter account has hinted, this may begin to happen as early as tomorrow.
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